Friday, November 30, 2012

Forced to Choose: Nursing Home vs. Hospice - NYTimes.com

An older person, someone who will die within six months, leaves a hospital. Where does she go?

Almost a third of the time, according to a recent study from the University of California, San Francisco, records show she takes advantage of Medicare?s skilled-nursing facility benefit and enters a nursing home. But is that the best place for end-of-life care?

In terms of monitoring her vital signs and handling IVs ? the round-the-clock nursing care the skilled-nursing facility benefit is designed to provide ? maybe so. But for treating end-of-life symptoms like pain and shortness of breath, for providing spiritual support for her and her family, for palliative care that helps her through the ultimate transition ? hospice is the acknowledged expert.

She could receive hospice care, also covered by Medicare, while in the nursing home. But since Medicare only rarely reimburses for both hospice and the skilled-nursing facility benefit at the same time, this hypothetical patient and her family face a financial bind. If she opts for the hospice benefit, which does not include room and board at the nursing home, then she will be on the hook for hundreds of dollars a day to remain in the facility.

She could use the hospice benefit at home, of course. But, ?we know these patients are medically complex,? said Katherine Aragon, lead author of the study in The Archives of Internal Medicine, and now a palliative care specialist at Lawrence General Hospital in Massachusetts. ?And we know that taking care of someone near the end of life can be very demanding, hard for families to manage at home.? And that assumes the patient has a family or a home.

For some patients, a nursing home, though possibly dreaded, is the only place that can provide 24/7 care.

But if she uses the skilled-nursing facility benefit to pay for room and board in a facility, she probably has to forgo hospice. (The exception: if she was hospitalized for something unrelated to her hospice diagnosis. If she has cancer, then trips and breaks a hip, she can have both nursing home coverage and hospice. If cancer itself caused the bone to fracture, no dice.)

Let?s acknowledge that these are lousy choices.

The study, using data from the National Health and Retirement Study from 1994 through 2007, looked at more than 5,000 people who initially lived in the community ? that is, not in a facility. About 30 percent used the skilled-nursing facility benefit during the final six months of life; those people were likely to be over 85 and family members said, after their deaths, that they had expected them to die soon. (The benefit is commonly referred to as S.N.F., which people in the field pronounce as ?sniff?).

The choice to use S.N.F. had ongoing repercussions. Almost 43 percent of those who used it died in a nursing home and almost 40 percent in a hospital. Just 11 percent died at home, though that is where most people prefer to die, studies repeatedly show.

Among those who didn?t use the S.N.F. benefit, more than 40 percent died at home.

In effect, nursing homes were providing end-of-life care, expensively and probably not so well, for almost a third of the elderly population.

The skilled-nursing facility benefit, Dr. Aragon pointed out in an interview, is meant to provide rehabilitation. ?The hope is that someone will get stronger and go home,? she said.

Sometimes, of course, that is what happens.

?What we may be missing is that this patient is on an end-of-life trajectory,? she continued. ?Maybe they can?t get stronger.?

Moreover, Dr. Aragon pointed out, nursing homes often have financial incentives to keep re-hospitalizing patients. After three days in a hospital, the skilled-nursing facility benefit starts anew, and it reimburses at a higher level than Medicaid, which pays for most nursing home care.

Because this unhappy choice between hospice care and nursing home reimbursement reflects federal policy, there may be little that individual families can do. If physicians are willing to honestly discuss their patients? prognosis, to assess whether a nursing home stay will lead to rehabilitation or whether it is where a patient will likely die, sooner rather than later, families may have some personal options.

If they knew that death was likely within a few months, they might try to provide care at home with hospice help for that limited time, difficult as that is. Or they might be able to muster enough money to pay for a few months in a nursing home, so that their parent can be a resident and still receive hospice care.

But these are still lousy choices. ?Palliative care should be part of nursing home care,? said Alexander K. Smith, the study?s senior author and a palliative care specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. ?And that regulation that prevents concurrent use of the S.N.F. benefit and hospice isn?t in the interest of patients and families.?

Coming up in a future post: Experimenting with a concurrent-coverage option.

Paula Span is the author of ?When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.?

Source: http://newoldage.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/30/forced-to-choose-nursing-home-vs-hospice/

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The fiscal cliff, the debt cliff, and the political cliff (Powerlineblog)

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Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/267096010?client_source=feed&format=rss

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On Tuesday the trading session opening was marked with the dollar ...

On Tuesday the trading session opening was marked with the dollar trading. Thus, Greek aid optimism influenced the market for a short time.? In the European trading session American currency narrowed its losses and ended the day strengthening against European opponents and remained neutral against the yen. It is obvious that investors have already taken into account the decision of European Union according to rumors, and their attention was switched to the U.S. fiscal cliff, which brought a lot of fear now.? The dollar was also supported by the US economic statistics published yesterday , most of which demonstrates positive dynamics. Total volume of durable orders is the same in October in comparison with September, it was better-than-expected by forecast, which expected its decrease by 1.2%? m/m, the consumer confidence rose in November ? the Conference Board Consumer confidence index showed? 73.7 after 73.1 in October, when it was expected only 73.0. Housing market statistics also confirms the housing market recovery ? according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (the FHFC) house prices rose by 0.2% m/m and by 4.4% y/y, and S&P Case-Shiller report demonstrates rise in house prices in 20 megalopolises in the same month by 3% y/y. Regional data has some divergences? ? the production index conducted by the FRS Richmond in November increased to 9 from 7 earlier, the production index of the FRS Chicago decreased in October by 1.2% m/m, but increased by 5.9% per annum. Today there is only a few news. Housing market data for October will come out, which may demonstrate its decrease by 1.0% after increase +5.7% in the previous month.? The FRS Economic data of the regions (the Beige Book) will pe published soon, which? will bring information about the situation in the region. If talking about the nearest perspectives, we can assume that the dollar will be interesting only as a shelter-currency, and the invetors? attention will be drawn mostly by news about the negotiations of the US government about the budget problems.

EUR

On the last trading session investors concentrated their attention on the euro for a short time which was caused by the information about the new aid tranche for Greece. On Tuesday the Ministers of Finance of the EU, the ECB and the IMF came to a consensus about the new aid tranche for Greece and allocated 43.7 milliard euros to this country from the EFSF. What is more, it was announced that there is an intention to consider different measures in order to support Greece such as lower interest rate of Greece?s debt, reduce credit interest rates which had been provided by the EFSF, and also 10 years postponement of credit provided by the European Financial Stability Facility. Nevertheless, It didn?t bring risk seeking in the market, maybe because of the fear of budget problems in the USA, which is the most important problem now as it must be solved till by the end of current year. There was almost no news about the EU economy. Only France Consumer Confidence Index for November was published, which showed better results than expected. The Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged, at the level 84 as in October when it was forecasted its decrease to? 83. Today there are more news ? the money supply data is going to come out , the aggregate M3 is expected to widen to +2.8% y/y in October from+2.7% y/y earlier, but it might slow down to +2.8%? per quarter after +3.0% q/q in the previous period. Germany inflation rate is also expected to come out? ? according to the preliminary calculations the Consumer price index (CPI) for November is expected to decrease? -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y against 0.0% m/m, +2.0% y/y in October. It is unlikely that this statistics will cause activity in the market. Members of market will pay attention to the political events in the USA.

GBP

The British pound was changing its positions against the dollar, but it ended the day decreasing as the euro. The pound sterling was supported by the GDP growth data for the 3rd quarter which demonstrates more precise results. According to the report the main economic indicators remained +1% q/q, but it decreased by 0.1% y/y, at the same time household expenses in Great Britain for the 3rd quarter demonstrated the highest growth for more than two years? ? by 0.6% after its decrease by 0.2% before, and gross profit increased by 0.5% and? 1.0% correspondingly. Maybe it reduced slightly fears of the results for the last quarter of this year. What is more, yesterday at the meeting of Parliament the head of the BoE announced? that he will be surprised if the economy demonstrates bad results for the 4th quarter. The pound was negatively influenced by the announcement of the governor of the Bank of England P. Fisher about British economy that may need additional stimulus next year. Moreover, interest in pound could be reduced by fear of the US budget problems and good data of the US economy. Today there will be no news about ?islands? economy, and the pound will remain under the influence of external information.

JPY

Yesterday in the trading session Japanese currency decreased slightly against the dollar and ended the trading day almost on the starting prices. The currency pairs demonstrated weak dynamics in narrow corridors, maybe because of subsided political announcements about aggressive quantitative easing and coming elections in the Land of the Rising Sun, fixed on the middle of December. It intensified uncertainty and forced the market to wait for new reference points. Today there was no news about Japanese economy . This week the main information will come out tomorrow. And for the present the currency pairs which involve the yen may produce profits. It may support the Japanese currency in today?s trading session.

Source: http://blog.forex4you.com/on-tuesday-the-trading-session-opening-was-marked-with-the-dollar-trading/

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Indoor Cycling | Media Sports & Recreation, Classes & Lectures ...

Will a Probe of California Oil Refineries Prove Market Manipulation?

Relying on a Nov. 15 McCullough Research report, six senators from the West Coast are calling on the Department of Justice (DOJ) to launch a "refinery-by-refinery probe," a press release by Senator Dianne Feinstein notes. Allegations suggest that the 66-cent per gallon of gasoline price increase yielded a $25-million a day profit for oil companies. "The difference between what drivers actually paid and what they should have paid exceeded $1 billion," the senators claim.

Oct. 5: California Gasoline Prices Jump by 20 Cents to 40 Cents per Gallon

The Associated Press reported that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.49. Southern California and the Bay Area were hit particularly hard, with some gas stations charging $4.54 or $4.60 for a gallon of gas. Fuel retailers note that refinery problems had contributed to the shortages.

Oct. 7: California Governor Considers Early Release of Winter-blend Fuel

The State of California requires the use of a specifically formulated summer blend to be sold at the pump until Oct. 31. CBS Los Angeles and the Associated Press reported that Gov. Jerry Brown discussed an early switch to the more readily available winter blend with operating refineries. By this time, gasoline prices had climbed to an average of $4.70 in Los Angeles. Statewide, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline had increased to $4.65, which surpassed the previous high mark of $4.60 in June 2008. Responsibility for the sudden spike in gasoline prices was apportioned to a Southern California refinery suffering a Monday power outage.

Nov. 5: Gasoline Drops below $4 per Gallon

The Los Angeles Times noted that the statewide average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $3.97. Nevertheless, the cost of gasoline was still more than 13 cents above the price charged in November 2011. California energy experts "blamed the spike on low gasoline supplies, low fuel production, a year of numerous refinery outages and exports of fuel to overseas customers."

Nov. 21: Gas Priced Fell by almost 90 Cents

Just before Thanksgiving, California gasoline prices averaged $3.77, the L.A. Times reported. This represented another 6.9-cent drop compared to the week before. The Los Angeles area saw gasoline prices of $3.82 cents per gallon, which was lower than the Central Coast region where the cost still reached $3.89.

Nov. 27: Six West Coast Senators Call for DOJ Probe into "Possible Market Manipulation and False Reporting by Oil Refineries"

The New Guard pinpoints the Exxon Mobile refinery in Torrance as the causation for the spike in gasoline prices that had affected California and indeed the West Coast. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., joined with Sens. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Patty Murray, D-Wash., Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., in calling for a DOJ investigation, Feinstein's press release notes.

"We are requesting a Department of Justice investigation of possible market manipulation and false reporting by oil refineries which may have created a perception of a supply shortage, when in fact refineries were still producing," the senators said.

Sylvia Cochran is a Los Angeles area resident with a firm finger on the pulse of California politics. Talk radio junkie, community volunteer and politically independent, she scrutinizes the good and the bad from both sides of the political aisle.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/probe-california-oil-refineries-prove-market-manipulation-183800082--finance.html

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Hump Day Hero: Molly Adler - The Center for Sexual Pleasure and ...

1. What do you do in the field of sexuality?

I am a Sexuality Educator and the co-owner of Self Serve Sexuality Resource Center in Albuquerque, NM.

2. Where are you based out of?

Albuquerque, NM

3. What is your focus? What do you do?

About six years ago, along with my business partner Matie Fricker, I opened Self Serve Sexuality Resource Center, the Southwest?s first safe, sex-positive, healthy space for adults to learn about sexuality. The center has established a much-needed community center for women, LGBT folks, kinksters, polyamorous families, new parents, and all adults in Albuquerque. We have a brick & mortar shop where adults can find all things pleasure related, from gourmet chocolate to gourmet sex toys. We answer questions, help people find resources and offer sex and relationship classes throughout the year.

We also run an online store at www.selfservetoys.com

4. What are your particular goals and passions in the field?

I am passionate about helping people have a stronger, healthier body image, better communication in their relationships, and for folks to find new ways to experience pleasure. I truly believe a sex positive approach to relationships and one?s sexuality will lead to a happier life.

I am currently pursuing my MSW, and hope to do more one-on-one counseling in the future. I also offer trainings for health professionals on sexual cultural competency.

5. Why did you choose to work in this field?

Sex is everywhere, and yet access to accurate and honest information, and products for promoting healthy sexuality is limited. At Self Serve, we offer a healthy alternative to the way we ?consume? sexuality information in our culture. This sex-positive approach was, and still is in many ways, radical: It posits that sex is healthy, and pleasure is good for you. Sex-positive spaces like Self Serve encourage each person to find accurate sexual health information, define his or her own sexual identity, and choose relationships without judgment. Like the sign at the front of our space says, Self Serve is for everyone.

I am passionate about spaces like Self Serve existing, someday I hope in most cities and towns. People deserve a space to ask questions, find resources and find toys and treats that help them feel more joy and pleasure. In our society, most people only find sex information (in a very limited way) through peers, medical professionals and the internet. Folks have few resources they can trust, and I?m proud Self Serve offers that safe space.

6. Where did you go for school/training?

I graduated with a BA cum laude from George Washington University in Washington, DC. I majored in Psychology and Women?s Studies. The human mind, gender and identities are all tied to sexuality and our everyday experience.

I learned many valuable lessons working for Grand Opening in Boston, MA from 2003-2005. I discovered how much I loved working in a women-run sex shop. Much of my formative learning was passed down from other sex educators I worked with. During my time there I was lucky to learn on the job as well as attend trainings in safer sex and public health.

I am currently pursuing a Masters in Social Work. I plan to pursue more sexuality training, as well.

7. Do you have any literature out (websites, articles)?

I am proud of the website, blog and videos we?ve created through Self Serve:
selfservetoys.com
self serve on youtube

8. What would you recommend to future professionals attempting to get into the field?

Figure out in what context you get excited about the work. Do you love counseling individuals? Do you like talking to a big group? Work with different populations (older women, gay men, leather folk, transgender people, survivors of sexual assault, etc) and see who you?re most interested in working with. You can definitely talk to everyone about sex, but sometimes we feel most excited about a certain group or experience, or benefit from working in the communities we?re part of.

Consider whether an institution like a University or Non-Profit is right for you, or if you?d rather carve your own path. I am personally inspired by how many great Sex Educators, Performers and Writers are starting their own business, website, movement or educational forum.

9. What is the most challenging aspect for you working in this career?

One of the toughest challenges can be the most liberating: there aren?t a wide range of ready-to-wear jobs in sexuality. One reason so many Sexuality Educators are entrepreneurs is because they have to be in order to realize their dreams. It is still challenging to fight for the importance and legitimacy of Self Serve and sex ed with a predominantly sex negative public.

One defining moment I recall with pride is when Matie and I won the Tough Cookie Awards in 2008 from NAWBO (National Association of Women Business Owners, Northern New Mexico).

The Tough Cookie Award was recognition of all we?ve accomplished in starting and growing our business, despite the obstacles. We told the awards committee of the discrimination against our business: in funding, finding retail space and zoning regulations. We live in a society that writes off all sex-related businesses as prurient, harmful and unsafe. We were told SBA funding is off-limits to us, we learned how zoning would limit how we merchandise every square foot of our store, and landlords rejected us when we sought retail space. I see myself as a culture-shifter, hoping our world will relax and become more positive in attitudes around sex, relationships and body image. The process in which we help make that shift involves a lot of uphill battles. I am very proud of the moment we won the Tough Cookie awards, and I?m proud of the business organization NAWBO for publicly valuing the work we do.

10. One must read-what would you recommend? Why?

My favorite sex book varies day to day, but lately I find myself recommending Mating in Captivity by Esther Perel a lot. I love how she breaks down the unhealthy way we typically view long term relationships in our culture, and introduces a more playful, creative, erotic view. The subtitle is ?unlocking erotic intelligence? which I think is aptly titled. Many women, men and couples in American society lack a critical understanding of co-dependence and interpersonal relationships. Perel?s book provides a new outlook that is freeing and positive.

?

Source: http://thecsph.org/hump-day-hero-molly-adler

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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Fantastical comes to iPhone, makes appointment entry ridiculously easy

Fantastical comes to iPhone, makes appointment entry ridiculously easy

I have a love/hate relationship with Flexibits' Fantastical. There is absolutely no faster, easier, more human way to enter appointments into your calendar. And because of that, my calendar -- previously a wasteland -- is now bristling with appointments. My only saving grace was that Fantastical was bound to my Mac, and I couldn't use it when I was out and about, with only an iPhone in my pocket. But with Fantastical's terrible awesomeness coming to the iPhone, I can now fill up my calendar faster, easier, and more humanly than ever before on the go, and no matter where I am. I'm organized now. I have no excuse left not to be. Dagnabit.

If you haven't used Fantastical before, it fixes almost everything that's wrong with Apple's built-in, kludgy Calendar app. Instead of tapping and filling in appointment or event details, you just type in natural language phrases and Fantastical parses it and creates the entry. "Lunch with Leanna at 8", "movie on Saturday with Georgia", "call on the 28th with Phil and Kevin", Fantastical takes it all in and makes it just work. Like Siri, but with a type-driven, instead of voice-driven, interface. If you want to edit all the fine details you can do that as well, of course. But the point is you don't have to until you want to.

The iPhone version makes great use of the smaller (than Mac) display, presenting 2 perpendicular scroll views. On the top is a horizontally scrolling date list. Tap a date, go to that date. Tap the top bar, go to today's date. On the bottom is a list view of all your events. Tap an event, get the details to that event.

And Flexibits absolutely, positively, gloriously nailed the bi-directional scrolling in a way that just feels perfect. Scroll the dates and the events change, scroll the events and the dates change. Flick and they both whizz by in perfect synchronicity, always slowing and stopping on a full event break.

If you want to see a month view, just pull down on the dates and either peak at it, or keep pulling to switch completely. If you want to peak or go back, just pull down again. (It's a state-toggle gesture, not a window shade analog.)

To add an appointment, tap the + button and, as described above, simply write what you want to add. Appointments get added to your default calendar, but you can also tap Show Details and edit everything in a more traditional manner, including changing the calendar, adding repetitions, making events all-day, and more. If you're using the iCloud calendar or a Google calendar, or any calendar with sync, the event will propagate across your devices just as you'd expect.

There are a lot of other great little touches in Fantastical for iPhone as well, like how words animate and playfully saunter down from the entry field to the calendar. , and how, as you type times and dates, the calendar flips, also playfully, to the right page. No part of the user experience has been left unpolished or anything less than delightful.

With the iPhone 5, iPhone 4S, and iPod touch 5, you can also use the built in iOS voice dictation to get a Siri-like effect by simply saying your natural-language event phrase. That means Fantastical can actually handle natural language through speech or type, which is a huge advantage. (I've wanted Siri to handle text queries via Spotlight for a while now for just that reason -- sometimes it's easier to talk, sometimes quite inopportune.)

I've been using Fantastical for iPhone for a while now, and I haven't touched Apple's Calendar app since. It's been reverse Sherlocked -- Flexibits saw an opportunity where the built-in app wasn't meeting a need, and provided a compelling alternative.

That doesn't mean it's for everybody, however. To be as focused as it is, Fantastical leaves out some things as well. There's no landscape mode, no week view, and no a lot of other features that other calendar apps absolutely nail. For me, speed of entry and speed of lookup are the most essential element of an iPhone calendar app, and that's Fantastical's forte. For other users and use cases, different priorities will apply.

Like I said at the start, if you want the absolute fastest, easiest, most human way to get appointments into your calendar, you'll want Fantastical for iPhone.



Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/TkDTfh5OUJM/story01.htm

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There are numerous indications to look for when deciding which online casino should redeem your own bonus codes. The look of an online wagering site can tell hardly any. Sometimes the flashier ones are definitely the ?rogue casinos? and also the more refined ones have pristine reputations. However, essential signs to watch out for are usually contact details, payout, kinds plus variety of games, amount of pay in and withdrawal methods, as well as the casino online coupons wagering conditions and terms. Do not be shy to check on various internet review websites. They can provide you with superb insight on the online wagering houses reputation.

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Source: http://blog-arts-entertainment.mysurechoice.com/3889/receive-all-casino-bonuses-by-making-use-of-casino-bonus-codes/

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NASA seeks concepts for innovative uses of large space telescopes

ScienceDaily (Nov. 28, 2012) ? NASA is exploring options for innovative and imaginative uses of two large space telescopes recently transferred to the agency. In a request for information (RFI) published Monday, NASA seeks information about system concepts and architectures that would take advantage of these assets to address NASA's goals in astrophysics, heliophysics, planetary sciences, and human spaceflight.

"Because there are two telescopes, there is room for projects that span the gamut of the imagination," said Michael Moore, a senior program executive at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "They range from simple balloon flights to complex missions in science using new technologies under development and the capabilities available with the International Space Station and our commercial space flight partners."

The telescopes are equivalent to NASA's Hubble Space Telescope in aperture, but designed to have a much wider field of view. They already are being studied for possible use as a wide field infrared survey observatory, which would address the top priority recommendation in the National Research Council's 2010 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. NASA is seeking alternative goals and unique approaches in order to expand the range of concepts for use of this capable hardware.

The RFI invites interested parties to provide an outline of their concept in enough detail for a next-step assessment by NASA as it prepares for future investments in diverse areas of science and technology. Respondents who submit the most interesting concepts will be invited to present their ideas at a workshop in Huntsville, Ala., in early February 2013.

"We will give all ideas equal consideration and choose the most promising for further study," said Marc Allen, acting deputy associate administrator for research in NASA's Science Mission Directorate. "We want to tap into innovative ideas wherever we can find them in order to optimize use of these telescope assets."

For more information about the RFI, NASA goals and objectives, details on the telescopes, and other supporting information, visit: http://science.nasa.gov/salso

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Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/space_time/nasa/~3/d_xXm1Xrgac/121128070705.htm

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Heber Valley, Utah Ranch Wedding from Kate Osborne Photography

Up next is a wedding that could have been the one I dreamt about day in and day out as a little girl. Because as a young dreamer with a passion for everything equine, getting married in a horse barn would have been the end all be all. So my ten year old self is joining my thirty year old self in squealing over every single image?Kate Osborne?sent our way. Because this wedding combines casual elegance with equestrian chic in a way you just can?t help get a little excited about, no matter your age ? and you can see it all right here!

From Kate Osborne Photography? Lezlie and Tucker had an amazing wedding up in beautiful Heber, Utah. They had great food that included tacos, sliders, salads, sushi, handmade drinks, bottled cokes- you name it! The flowers were done by the very talented Sarah Winward. She incorporated ?olive branch, dahlias, garden roses, berries, and fox glove to create a casual yet very elegant?palette?that blended perfectly with the natural outdoor landscape. They had?fire pits?so that you could roast your own s?mores and they had tables set inside the barn to eat by the candlelight or outside in the fresh air and the open sky above you. The day was a casual and truly beautiful day that was enjoyed by all ages.?

Photography: Kate Osborne Photography?/ Venue: Red Cliff Ranch, Heber Valley, Utah /?Event Planning + Catering: Culinary Crafts?/?Floral Design: Sarah Winward of?Honey of a Thousand Flowers?/ Wedding Dress: Tadashi Shoji via?Nordstorm / Bride?s Shoes: Anthropologie

Source: http://www.stylemepretty.com/2012/11/28/heber-valley-utah-ranch-wedding-from-kate-osborne-photography/

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US orders for core capital goods up 1.7 percent

WASHINGTON (AP) ? U.S. companies in October increased their orders of machinery and equipment that signal investment plans by the largest amount in five months, a hopeful sign for future economic growth.

Orders for core capital goods, considered a proxy for business investment, rose 1.7 percent in October, the best showing since a 2.3 percent rise in May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Orders in this category had slowed beginning in the spring, acting as a drag on overall economic growth.

Total orders for durable goods were unchanged in October at $216.9 billion following a 9.2 percent jump in September that had been driven by a surge in demand for commercial aircraft. In October, demand for machinery, primary metals and communications equipment increased while orders for autos, airplanes and computers fell.

Many businesses had been holding back because they are worried about tax increases and federal spending cuts ? known as the "fiscal cliff" ? that will take effect in January unless Congress reaches a budget deal before then. Most economists predict the economy will suffer a recession in the first half of 2013 if lawmakers and President Barack Obama can't avoid the fiscal cliff.

Economists called the rebound in orders in the business investment category encouraging but cautioned that business will remain cautious until Congress and the Obama administration reach a budget deal to avert the fiscal cliff.

"We don't anticipate any marked turnaround until Congress gets its act together and reaches an agreement," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. He said if a deal is reached either late this year or early in 2013, "then we would expect to see something of a rebound in business investment as firms give the green light to projects put on hold in the second half of this year."

White House economists on Monday warned that the uncertainty of a potential hike in taxes next year for middle class taxpayers could hurt consumer confidence and spending during the crucial holiday shopping season.

Businesses have also grown more cautious because Europe's financial crisis has pushed many countries in the region into recession. That has cut into U.S. exports and corporate profits. Growth has also slowed in China, Brazil and other big developing nations which are major markets for American exports.

U.S. factory activity grew in October for a second straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management closely watched manufacturing survey. But regional surveys indicated manufacturing shrank this month in the Philadelphia and New York regions, partly reflecting damage from Superstorm Sandy that disrupted area factories.

The storm may have also weighed on durable goods orders in October, although most economists expect the storm's impact to fade in the coming weeks.

The economy is expanding at a modest pace. Many economists now predict growth at an annual rate of roughly 3 percent in the July-September quarter, up from the initial estimate of 2 percent reported last month. The government releases its second estimate for third-quarter growth on Nov. 29.

Still, many economists say the economy is growing in the current October-December quarter at an annual rate below 2 percent. That's too slow to make much of a dent in the unemployment rate, which was 7.9 percent last month.

Orders for transportation equipment were down 3.1 percent in October. That reflected a 1.6 percent fall in demand for autos and auto parts and a 5.5 percent drop in commercial aircraft orders.

Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5 percent following a 1.7 percent rise in September.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/us-orders-core-capital-goods-1-7-percent-133611093--finance.html

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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

What Are HUD Homes? | Boise Area HUD Homes - Boise Real Estate

HUD Homes are homes owned by the U.S. Government.? ?HUD?stand for the U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development.

How Do Homes Become Owned By HUD?

When a person buys a home using an FHA loan (Federal Housing Administration), FHA guarantees the loan against default for the lender (e.g. BofA, Wells Fargo, Etc.).? If the homeowner defaults on the FHA backed loan and goes through foreclosure, FHA pays off the lender and HUD is given title to the property.

Who Can Buy HUD Homes?

Both owner-occupants and investors can purchase HUD Homes (as well as governmental agencies & non-profits).? Typically, HUD will review owner-occupant offers after a period of 10 days on the open market.? Investors offers are typically not considered for the first 30 days.

How Can I Find Out About HUD Homes For Sale?

We maintain a list of current HUD homes in the Boise-Metro area for you here.

Can I Make An Offer Contingent On An Inspection?

HUD encourages inspections prior to the submittable of an offer.? However, offers can also be subject to an inspection.? Typically, and this is true with many REO type of properties, you would need to find ?material defects? previously unknown to be able terminate the agreement.? Note: HUD can have more stringent requirements for investors.

How Long Does it Take to Close?

You can typically close on a HUD home in 30-45 days.

How Do I Submit An Offer?

You must have a HUD registered real estate broker to submit an offer on a HUD home.? We can help you with that, please contact us.

What Are The Advantages of Purchasing HUD Homes?

One the primary advantages for purchasing HUD homes are for FHA buyers.? Many properties that have been through foreclosure will not qualify for FHA financing due the need for repairs.? However, HUD has an FHA appraisal done on the property to identify any required repairs and put that repair cost in an escrow account to be completed after closing (Note: the amount is rolled in the new FHA loan).? This is a scenario that is not typically possible on other REO type of properties.

Another benefit of bidding on HUD homes is the responsiveness the offer.? Typically, you?ll get an answer on your offer within 24-48 hours.

What Are The Disadvantages Of Purchasing HUD Homes?

Like many governmental entities, the closing process is a bit cumbersome and bureaucratic.? Buyer?s need to have a lot of patience and need a broker who knows HUD procedures to successfully keep the transaction on track for closing.

Disclaimer: Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

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Source: http://www.boiserealestateplus.com/what-are-hud-homes

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Success Ladder ? Should You Take Out a Payday Loan?

Let?s face it: times are tough. The powers that be may have announced that the credit crunch is behind us but many people are still feeing the pinch. With prices rising ? even for everyday expenses such as grocery shopping ? many people are finding that the uneasy pause before the next paycheck gets a little more uneasy every time. We?ve all seen the advertisements for payday loans, very short-term loans designed to bridge the gap before payday. Are they ever a good idea?

Shortfall

It?s not unusual to find oneself struggling at the end of the month, particularly if some unexpected expense has reared its head. It?s particularly difficult to cope financially if your credit isn?t in good shape. Many of us have struggled to keep a good credit rating during these uncertain times, as rising costs and tighter credit limits make meeting existing obligations increasingly difficult. You can have a weak credit rating even if you?ve never had a loan or a credit card; this means that as far as credit card companies and banks are concerned, you?re an unknown quantity. Not everyone can simply stroll into their friendly high-street bank and get an overdraft or sign up for a shiny new credit card.

Standard financial advice holds that one should try ?taking a second job? or ?selling items you no longer need?. If neither option is available to you, however, what can you do? On paper, short-term loans of this type tend to be more expensive than conventional loans or credit cards. They can save you money, however, if the alternative is paying hefty bank charges or late fees. If you have pressing but temporary financial needs, a payday loan could be the answer.

Short Term

Although they have something of a poor reputation amongst conventional lenders, payday loans are a lifeline for countless people who would otherwise find themselves in serious financial difficulties. The most important thing to remember is that a payday loan is designed to be a short-term measure and you need to be ready to pay it back in the agreed time period.

For this reason, it?s important only to borrow the minimum that you need and to be certain that you?ll be able to pay everything back comfortably; ?comfortably? means ?in line with your current spending patterns?. Making yourself a hostage to fortune by devising a plan that involves a major change in your habits ? giving up smoking or making some other dramatic change ? can get you into hot water.

Solution

Before you agree to a loan, look carefully at the small print. Be absolutely certain of the amount you?ll need to pay back, how often you?ll need to make payments and how big each payment will be. You also need to go over your financial incomings and outgoings to make sure you?ll be able to pay off your loan. If you miss the deadline and your payday loan is ?rolled over? into a new loan, you could end up paying more than you bargained for.

If you follow these tips, a payday loan can be a convenient and simple solution to a temporary financial problem.

Darren Bechard is an independent finance researcher. He has been following consumer trends with regards to short term finance and reporting his findings on various personal finance blogs. Find out more about Wonga.com short term loans.

Source: http://www.success-ladder.com/should-you-take-out-a-payday-loan/

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Crazy Making

Jared Loughner. Months of treatment was required before Jared Lee Loughner, who killed six people outside an Arizona grocery store, could understand the charges against him

Courtesy Pima County Sheriff Forensic Unit.

Earlier this month, Jared Loughner was sentenced to life in prison at a sober proceeding in which survivors of his terrible shooting spree in Arizona, and their families, recognized the role his schizophrenia played in his crimes. They talked about their understandable hurt and anger, and they also recognized that Loughner didn?t get the mental health care he needed. (Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, whom Loughner shot in the head, usefully highlighted the expiration a decade ago of the federal law that banned the sale of the rapid-fire ammunition clips Loughner used.)

It took months of medication and treatment for Loughner to understand the charges against him. That comes as no surprise, given the disturbed-looking photos of him after the crime. And the country got a similar view of violence and untreated mental illness in James Holmes, the 24-year-old who shot up a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., in July. Both Loughner and Holmes spiraled out of control while enrolled at a university yet fell through the holes of the health care net that should have caught them. This is a story we?ve been hearing since at least the 2007 mass killing by a student at Virginia Tech.

The mental illness of criminal defendants, however, is not of current interest to the Supreme Court. This week, the justices turned down a case challenging Idaho?s complete lack of an insanity defense. In Idaho, ?mental condition? is not a defense to any charge of criminal conduct. In the case the Supreme Court won?t hear, John Joseph Delling, a paranoid schizophrenic, shot and killed two of his friends and wounded a third while seized by the delusion that he was a ?type of Jesus? and that his friends were ?taking his energy? in a way that would kill him. A psychologist testified that he truly?and delusionally and tragically?believed he had to stop his friends to save his own life.

Delling, like Loughner, had to be medicated for a year before he could be found competent to stand trial. At that point, the judge found that when he committed the killings, he was unable to appreciate the wrongfulness of his actions. But Delling was still guilty of murder, because there was no insanity defense for him to plead. Think about that for a minute: The state was saying that a man who was so insane that he could not understand that it was wrong to kill two of his friends was just as culpable as a sane person. The Idaho Supreme Court agreed. And now the U.S. Supreme Court has declined Delling?s challenge to these rulings, which means it has ducked the question of whether the Constitution requires the states to provide a traditional insanity defense. Idaho is an utter outlier here. That?s true because 46 states recognize that the ability to distinguish between right and wrong matters for holding a person criminally responsible for his or her actions. It?s true because the American Psychiatric Association is on Delling?s side. And it?s also true because societies have recognized since ancient times that people whose mental illness destroys their judgment, in the way that Delling?s schizophrenia did, are not culpable in the same way that the rest of us are. Delling?s lawyers cite ?Hebraic, Roman, and early Muslim law.? Also Homer?s Iliad. William Blackstone provided for an insanity defense in his 18th-century treatise. The best known and most durable version of the plea is the 1843 M?Naghten rule, which allows a defendant try to prove that he didn't know right from wrong, or the "nature and quality of the act he was doing," because of "a defect of reason, from disease of the mind."

M?Naghten isn?t the last word: State legislatures and judges, including my grandfather, Judge David L. Bazelon, have tried to come up with better or broader standards that would allow psychiatrists to testify about the full extent of a defendant?s mental illness, not just whether he can tell right from wrong. That has proved hard to do. And as it stands, the insanity defense plays only a tiny role in the everyday criminal justice system and succeeds in one-quarter of 1 percent of cases (though more than 10 percent of the prison population is mentally ill).

But the baffling, dismaying point to make about John Joseph Delling is that Idaho doesn?t even provide the old protection of M?Naghten. As the state?s courts themselves say, Idaho?s rule ?may allow the conviction of persons who may be insane by some former insanity test or medical standard, but who nevertheless have the ability to form intent and control their actions.?

Justice Stephen Breyer, joined by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Sonia Sotomayor, dissented from the Supreme Court?s decision to ignore Delling?s plea. Breyer explains the hole in Idaho?s law by comparing a defendant who kills someone thinking his victim is a wolf to a defendant who kills someone thinking that a wolf has given him supernatural orders to carry out. In neither case can the defendant truly understand what he has done. But in Idaho, the mentally ill defendant who is taking orders from a wolf has no insanity plea to invoke.

One more woeful note about the direction in which this area of law is moving: The last time the Supreme Court considered the scope of the insanity defense, in 2006, it was to affirm the conviction of a schizophrenic 17-year-old in Arizona, Eric Clark, who was not allowed in the courts of his state to offer evidence of his mental illness to address the state?s claim that he had killed an officer knowingly and on purpose. This is also a bad rule, even if it?s not quite as bad as Idaho?s. Perhaps it helps explain why despite all the acknowledgment of Jared Loughner?s schizophrenia at his sentencing, the judge presiding over his case said he was not insane at the time of the shooting. ?He knew what he was doing,? the judge said. Never mind that Loughner will probably spend the rest of his life in a psych ward. States like Arizona and Idaho are becoming more and more vindictive toward the mentally ill and less and less willing to uphold the tradition of reckoning with the diminished capacity their illness produces. And the Supreme Court is OK with that.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=425fd741e05e3568816ef4b563c07479

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Remove Win 7 Antispyware Pro 2013 Ransomware Virus Before It's ...


(PRWEB) November 22, 2012

Cleanpcguide.com Virus Removal Service provides detection and removal of a new virus named Win 7 Antispyware Pro 2013. Cleanpcguide.com is one of the fastest growing Internet sites for computer virus spyware removal news and instructions. Cleanpcguide features the latest news on Computer Security, Technology, Software, Internet, Windows Operating System and a variety of other topics. Cleanpcguide provides a complete virus spyware removal guide as well as a wide variety of services to fix PC problems and maintain a healthy computer.

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Source: http://blog.tekmaster.co.uk/remove-win-7-antispyware-pro-2013-ransomware-virus-before-its-too-late-win-7-antispyware-pro-2013-removal-service-by-cleanpcguide-com/

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Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest hits record low

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) ? Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest has dropped to its lowest level in 24 years, the government said Tuesday.

Satellite imagery showed that 1,798 square miles (4,656 square kilometers) of the Amazon were deforested between August 2011 and July 2012, Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said a news conference. That's 27 percent less than the 2,478 square miles (6,418 square kilometers) deforested a year earlier. The margin of error is 10 percentage points.

Brazil's National Institute for Space Research said the deforestation level is the lowest since it started measuring the destruction of the rainforest in 1988.

Sixty-three percent of the rainforest's 2.4 million square miles (6.1 million square kilometers) are in Brazil.

The space institute said that the latest figures show that Brazil is close to its 2020 target of reducing deforestation by 80 percent from 1990 levels. Through July 2012 deforestation dropped by 76.26 percent.

George Pinto a director of Ibama, Brazil's environmental protection agency, told reporters that better enforcement of environmental laws and improved surveillance technology are behind the drop in deforestation levels.

Pinto said that in the 12-month period a total of 2,000 square meters of illegally felled timber were seized by government agents. The impounded lumber is sold in auctions and the money obtained is invested in environmental preservation programs.

Environment Minister Teixeira said that starting next year Brazil will start using satellite monitoring technology to detect illegal logging and slash-and-burn activity and issue fines.

"Over the past several years Brazil has made a huge effort to contain deforestation and the latest figures testify to its success," said Adalberto Verissimo, a senior researcher at Imazon, an environmental watchdog agency. "The deforestation figures are extremely positive, for they point to a consistent downward trend."

"The numbers disprove the argument that deforestation is necessary for the country's economy to grow, he said by telephone from his office in the Amazon city of Belem." Deforestation has been dropping steadily for the past four years while the economy has grown," he said

"But the war is far from over. We still have a lot of battles to fight and win."

For Marcio Astrini, Greenpeace coordinator in the Amazon region, said the lower figures show that reducing deforestation is possible, but he added that "the numbers are still too high for a country that does not have to destroy one single hectare in order to develop."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/brazil-deforestation-hits-record-low-190120227--finance.html

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Source: http://timsnewconstruction.com/Blog/2012/11/27/general-home-remodel-studio-city-ca-91604-4/

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Wii U Sales: 400,000 New Nintendo Consoles Sold In U.S. In First ...

NEW YORK (AP) ? Nintendo has sold more than 400,000 of its new video game console, the Wii U, in its first week on sale in the U.S., the company said Monday.

The Wii U launched on Nov. 18 in the U.S. at a starting price of $300. Nintendo said the sales figure, based on internal estimates, is through Saturday, or seven days later.

The Wii U is the first major game console to launch in six years. It comes with a new touch-screen controller that promises to change how people play games by offering different people in the same room a different experience, depending on the controller used.

Six years ago, Nintendo Co. sold 475,000 of the original Wii in that console's first seven days in stores, according to data from the NPD Group. The original Wii remains available, and Nintendo said it sold more than 300,000 of them last week, along with roughly 250,000 handheld Nintendo 3DS units and about 275,000 of the Nintendo DS.

At this early stage, demand isn't the only factor dictating how many consoles are sold. Supply is, too. This means it's likely that more people wanted to buy the Wii U in the first week than those who were able to. The original Wii was in short supply more than a year after it went on sale.

As of Monday afternoon, the website of Best Buy Co. was sold out of the Wii U. Video game retailer GameStop Corp. said there was at least a three day wait for a deluxe Wii U, which costs $350, has more memory and comes with a game called "Nintendo Land." GameStop still had the basic, $300 version available.

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter estimates that Nintendo will ship 1 million to 1.5 million Wii Us in the U.S. through the end of January.

Earlier on HuffPost:

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/26/wii-u-sales-nintendo_n_2194002.html

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NewsDaily: Analysis: German hint of Greek debt relief raises euro ...

Analysis: German hint of Greek debt relief raises euro hopes


By Paul TaylorPosted 2012/11/26 at 1:54 am EST

BRUSSELS, Nov. 26, 2012 (Reuters) ? Three years into the euro zone's debt crisis, Germany's finance minister hinted tantalisingly last week at a potential breakthrough.

Greece's Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos (L) talks with Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the start of a Eurogroup meeting ahead of a two-day EU leaders summit in Brussels March 1, 2012. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir


Behind closed doors at a meeting in Paris of a small group of senior policymakers, Wolfgang Schaeuble indicated that Berlin could eventually agree to write off some of the money it has lent Greece, in order to make its debt sustainable.

Three people present or briefed on the talks said Schaeuble had suggested there could be some kind of "conditional debt relief" for Athens if it sticks to tough economic reforms.

But Schaeuble backtracked within 24 hours.

The idea, aired publicly this month by German central bank chief Jens Weidmann, could be a game-changer in the currency area's crisis since it offers for the first time the prospect of sharing out losses to make the debt-crippled state viable in the long run.

But it is politically explosive in Germany, where many lawmakers, jurists and commentators fiercely oppose any idea of a "transfer union" in which wealthier northern EU states would subsidize or underwrite weaker southern partners.

Schaeuble told his peers from France, Spain and Italy and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde that Berlin would be willing to consider a Greek debt write-down, not now but at a later stage, the sources said.

That pointed to a possible review of Greece's debt outlook sometime after next year's German general election, and before a second Greek bailout program expires in 2016.

The next day, Schaeuble ruled out any debt forgiveness at a wider meeting of euro zone finance ministers, leaving some of his interlocutors baffled. In public he said an official debt write-off would be illegal, and Germany would no longer be able to lend money to Greece.

"HAIRCUT" INEVITABLE?

The IMF, some senior European Central Bank policymakers and many economists argue that a "haircut" for Greece's official lenders is inevitable because its debt ratio continues to mount despite a big write-down this year by private creditors.

An unpublished analysis prepared for the finance ministers showed Greek debt would peak at 190 percent of gross domestic product next year and fall to 144 percent in 2020, far above the 120 percent target set by the IMF and European lenders.

Euro zone ministers are considering lending Greece more money to buy back its own debt at a discount, reducing interest rates on official loans and extending their maturities, granting an interest repayment holiday, and passing profits on ECB purchases of Greek bonds back to Athens.

The moribund market in Greek government bonds has twitched back into life at the prospect, with prices rising to about 35 cents on the euro in anticipation of a possible buy-back.

But EU officials say all these measures taken together would not be enough to meet the debt sustainability target.

Lagarde has said she wants "a real fix, not a quick fix" to Greece's debt problem and has held back the release of the next urgently needed 31 billion euro loan tranche for Athens to force the Europeans to address a lasting solution.

She rejected letting the target date slide by two years to 2022. Diplomats involved in the negotiations said Lagarde was looking for some sort of signal from Germany.

Schaueble's closed-door comment may have been that signal. But it is not clear whether he had Chancellor Angela Merkel's agreement to indicate a willingness to consider debt relief in the longer term, or whether he exceeded his authority and was pulled back into line.

"It turns out that Schaeuble may have exceeded his mandate from the Chancellery, if he had one," an EU official briefed on the meeting said. "Anyway the idea of OSI (Official Sector Involvement) is now in the room."

BETRAYED

Apart from the political sensitivity of losing taxpayers' money in Greece, Merkel sees three objections to a debt writedown - legality, precedent and investor confidence.

A legal opinion ordered by the German government suggests a "haircut" would breach both the "no-bailout" clause in European Union treaty and the German budget law, which bars lending to a country that may be unable to pay back the debt.

Any writedown would likely be challenged in the German Constitutional Court, which has already clipped Berlin's wings in the crisis, and perhaps in the European Court of Justice.

Forgiving Greek debt could draw copycat requests from states such as Portugal and Ireland which are implementing similar bailout programs with less kicking and screaming.

Merkel is also concerned that investors such as the Chinese, who felt betrayed when euro zone leaders forced a "haircut" on private bondholders of Greece, would be even more alarmed if they saw a second write-down of European sovereign debt.

But the Bundesbank's Weidmann said that a "haircut" on government loans to Greece could make sense as a reward for completing economic reforms and to help Athens regain capital market access.

The risk is that it would be so hard for Germany and other northern European creditor states to get a debt write-down through their parliaments that the scale of relief might be too small to give Greece a real boost.

One source in the thick of euro zone crisis management said it would make sense to "bite the bullet" and cut Greece's debt by a substantial amount. But political constraints made it more likely that any relief would be "bite-sized" to bring the debt level down to around 100-110 percent of GDP by the target date.

(Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Sophie Walker)

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Source: http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/bre8ap05x-us-eurozone-losses/

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Thawing of permafrost expected to cause significant additional global warming, not yet accounted for in climate predictions

ScienceDaily (Nov. 27, 2012) ? Permafrost covering almost a quarter of the northern hemisphere contains 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice that currently in the atmosphere, and could significantly amplify global warming should thawing accelerate as expected, according to a new report released November 27 by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

Warming permafrost can also radically change ecosystems and cause costly infrastructural damage due to increasingly unstable ground, the report says.

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost seeks to highlight the potential hazards of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from warming permafrost, which have not thus far been included in climate-prediction modelling. The science on the potential impacts of warming permafrost has only begun to enter the mainstream in the last few years, and as a truly "emerging issue" could not have been included in climate change modelling to date.

The report recommends a special IPCC assessment on permafrost and the creation of national monitoring networks and adaptation plans as key steps to deal with potential impacts of this significant source of emissions, which may become a major factor in global warming.

"Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world," said UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.

"Its potential impact on the climate, ecosystems and infrastructure has been neglected for too long," he added. "This report seeks to communicate to climate-treaty negotiators, policy makers and the general public the implications of continuing to ignore the challenges of warming permafrost."

Most of the current permafrost formed during or since the last ice age and extends to depths of more than 700 meters in parts of northern Siberia and Canada. Permafrost consists of an active layer of up to two metres in thickness, which thaws each summer and refreezes each winter, and the permanently frozen soil beneath.

Should the active layer increase in thickness due to warming, huge quantities of organic matter stored in the frozen soil would begin to thaw and decay, releasing large amounts of CO? and methane into the atmosphere.

Once this process begins, it will operate in a feedback loop known as the permafrost carbon feedback, which has the effect of increasing surface temperatures and thus accelerating the further warming of permafrost -- a process that would be irreversible on human timescales.

Arctic and alpine air temperatures are expected to increase at roughly twice the global rate, and climate projections indicate substantial loss of permafrost by 2100. A global temperature increase of 3?C means a 6?C increase in the Arctic, resulting in an irreversible loss of anywhere between 30 to 85 per cent of near-surface permafrost.

Warming permafrost could emit 43 to 135 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2100 and 246 to 415 gigatonnes by 2200. Emissions could start within the next few decades and continue for several centuries.

Permafrost emissions could ultimately account for up to 39 per cent of total emissions, and the report's lead author warned that this must be factored in to the treaty to address global climate change expected to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

"The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost," said lead author Kevin Schaefer, from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

"Anthropogenic emissions' targets in the climate change treaty need to account for these emissions or we risk overshooting the 2?C maximum warming target," he added.

Most of the recent climate projections are biased on the low side relative to global temperature because the models do not at this time include the permafrost carbon feedback, the report says. Consequently, targets for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions based on these climate projections would be biased high.

Ecosystems and Infrastructure under Threat

Warming permafrost also brings negative consequences in terms of ecosystem and infrastructure damage.

The dominant ecosystems in permafrost regions are boreal forests to the south and tundra to the north. Permafrost is impermeable to water, so rain and melt water pool on the surface -- forming innumerable lakes and wetlands which are used by migratory birds as summer breeding grounds.

Ecosystem disturbances due to permafrost degradation will change species composition, and with it animal habitat and migration, according to the report.

Longer growing seasons due to higher temperatures favour the growth of shrubs and woody vegetation resulting in a northward migration of the tree line. Permafrost degradation and the resultant drying of the land can also result in disturbances such as fires. Fire in boreal forests has recently increased in intensity and frequency, and could become more common in tundra regions.

However, thawing permafrost is structurally weak, resulting in foundational settling that can damage or even destroy buildings, roads, pipelines, railways and power lines. Infrastructure failure can have dramatic environmental consequences, as seen in the 1994 breakdown of the pipeline to the Vozei oilfield in Northern Russia, which resulted in a spill of 160,000 tonnes of oil, the world's largest terrestrial oil spill.

Roads, buildings and other infrastructure in discontinuous permafrost, which tends to be warmer, and along the Arctic coast, where salt content means small temperature changes can turn ice to ground water, are most vulnerable to damage.

Climate change already could add up to US$6.1 billion to future costs for public infrastructure in the US state of Alaska between now and 2030, for example, and while there are only a handful of studies and reports evaluating the economic impacts of permafrost degradation, these indicate infrastructure maintenance and repair costs will increase.

"Thawing permafrost represents a dramatic physical change with huge impacts to ecosystems and human infrastructure," said Mr. Schaefer. "Individual nations need to develop plans to evaluate the risks, costs, and mitigation strategies to protect human infrastructure in permafrost regions most vulnerable to thaw."

Recommendations

The report issues the following specific policy recommendations to address the potential economic, social and environmental impacts of permafrost degradation in a warming climate:

  • Commission a Special Report on Permafrost Emissions: The IPCC may consider preparing a special assessment report on how carbon dioxide and methane emissions from warming permafrost would influence global climate to support climate change policy discussions and treaty negotiations.
  • Create National Permafrost Monitoring Networks: To adequately monitor permafrost, individual countries may consider taking over operation of monitoring sites within their borders, increasing funding, standardizing the measurements and expanding coverage. This applies particularly to countries with the most permafrost: Russia, Canada, China and the United States. The International Permafrost Association should continue to coordinate development and the national networks should remain part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost.
  • Plan for Adaptation: Nations with substantial permafrost, such as those mentioned above, may consider evaluating the potential risks, damage and costs of permafrost degradation to critical infrastructure. Most nations currently do not have such plans, which will help policy makers, national planners and scientists quantify costs and risks associated with permafrost degradation.

UNEP report: http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf

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